Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (95%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 217.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 5.0¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.4K
$144.17
51.3¢ → 5¢
-90% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 52.8¢ | $855.02 | $917.95 | +$62.93 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $274.45 | $386.48 | +$112.02 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
 hammyandcheese<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $83.72 | $56.42 | -$27.3 | 58% 340-251 (591) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 49.1¢ | $19.59 | $12.37 | -$7.22 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $1.42 | $5.15 | +$3.73 | 57% 12531-9470 (22001) |
Invested
$855.02
Value
$917.95
PnL
+$62.93
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$274.45
Value
$386.48
PnL
+$112.02
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
hammyandcheese<$100Invested
$83.72
Value
$56.42
PnL
-$27.3
Record
58%
340-251 (591)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.59
Value
$12.37
PnL
-$7.22
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$1.42
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$3.73
Record
57%
12531-9470 (22001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.