Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 1 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 207.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (11%) · Over at 28¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 11%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$77.32

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$628.12

Total Shares2,284

Combined PnL-$57.92

Under8 traders

Total Value$377.13

Total Shares704

Combined PnL-$19.4

Over — 11%Under — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 30¢	$686.04	$628.12	-$57.92	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49.7¢	$149.38	$192.3	+$42.92	48% 413-442 (855)
HRTrading	Underavg 65.7¢	$115.8	$127.82	+$12.02	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 54.9¢	$87.27	$22.26	-$65.01	63% 7864-4668 (12532)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$15.34	$14.34	+$1.52	57% 12531-9470 (22001)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Underavg 79¢	$9.48	$8.7	-$0.78	50% 580-589 (1169)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 79¢	$9.48	$8.7	-$0.78	67% 22791-11234 (34025)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 58¢	$7.25	$1.75	-$5.5	53% 6073-5290 (11363)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 56¢	$5.04	$1.26	-$3.78	53% 9987-8708 (18695)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$686.04

Value

$628.12

PnL

-$57.92

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$149.38

Value

$192.3

PnL

+$42.92

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$115.8

Value

$127.82

PnL

+$12.02

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$87.27

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$65.01

Record

63%

7864-4668 (12532)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$15.34

Value

$14.34

PnL

+$1.52

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

seeeeeeb<$100

Under

Invested

$9.48

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

580-589 (1169)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$9.48

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.78

Record

67%

22791-11234 (34025)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$7.25

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$5.5

Record

53%

6073-5290 (11363)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$5.04

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$3.78

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.