Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Hornets (55%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Hornets (-7.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (45%) · Wizards at 45¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 26

Hornets55¢Wizards45¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 45¢

-11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets55%

Wizards45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares22,837

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Hornets6 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares22,930

Combined PnL-$553.4

Wizards — 45%Hornets — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Wizardsavg 50¢	$11.1K	$13.3K	+$2.2K	52% 5657-5205 (10862)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Hornetsavg 50.2¢	$5.9K	$6.5K	+$556.4	48% 413-442 (855)
MO mooseborzoii	Hornetsavg 50¢	$5.5K	$4.4K	$-1.1K	50% 1084-1075 (2159)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Hornetsavg 43.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$57.74	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 43.4¢	$917.38	$846	-$71.38
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 57.5¢	$315.65	$329.28	+$13.64
FO Forecastication2CTR	Wizardsavg 66¢	$329.34	$299.4	-$29.94	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 59¢	$184.93	$175.77	-$9.16	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 59¢	$110.82	$112.7	+$1.88
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 47¢	$74.11	$63.07	-$11.04
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 46¢	$48.93	$47.87	-$1.06	48% 857-946 (1803)
poshposh<$100	Hornetsavg 42¢	$24.67	$23.49	-$1.17	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Hornetsavg 33¢	$11.22	$13.6	+$2.38	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
HRTrading<$100	Hornetsavg 34¢	$5.61	$6.6	+$0.25	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 55¢	$15.04	$4.73	+$1.78	57% 12531-9470 (22001)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Hornetsavg 52.5¢	$5.25	$4	-$1.25	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 48¢	$2.4	$3	+$0.6	50% 7452-7495 (14947)

NooseracCTR

Wizards

Invested

$11,111

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

52%

5657-5205 (10862)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hornets

Invested

$5,934.81

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$556.4

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

mooseborzoii

Hornets

Invested

$5,550

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

1084-1075 (2159)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1,233.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$57.74

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Hornets$917.3843.4¢-$71.38

Wizards$315.6557.5¢+$13.64

Forecastication2CTR

Wizards

Invested

$329.34

Value

$299.4

PnL

-$29.94

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

Anon455ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$184.93

Value

$175.77

PnL

-$9.16

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Wizards$110.8259¢+$1.88

Hornets$74.1147¢-$11.04

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$48.93

Value

$47.87

PnL

-$1.06

Record

48%

857-946 (1803)

poshposh<$100

Hornets

Invested

$24.67

Value

$23.49

PnL

-$1.17

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Hornets

Invested

$11.22

Value

$13.6

PnL

+$2.38

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

HRTrading<$100

Hornets

Invested

$5.61

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$15.04

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$1.78

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

justaluckydude<$100

Hornets

Invested

$5.25

Value

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

RLWGCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

7452-7495 (14947)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.