Spread: Hornets (-6.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (50%) · Hornets at 60¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 26

Hornets60¢Wizards40¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

-$115.96

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 59.5¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets60%

Wizards41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets3 traders

Total Value$398.2

Total Shares905

Combined PnL-$121.13

Wizards3 traders

Total Value$90.84

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$5.17

Hornets — 50%Wizards — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWizards 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Hornetsavg 44.1¢	$7.5K	$7.4K	-$57.13	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 44.1¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$14.6
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 57¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$42.53
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 55.8¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$56.34	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 55.8¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$9.42
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 42.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$46.92
Nooserac	Hornetsavg 49¢	$424.51	$381.2	-$116.96	52% 5657-5205 (10862)
RN1ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 61¢	$245	$237.5	-$7.5	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 61¢	$152.5	$140	-$12.5
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 37¢	$92.5	$97.5	+$5
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 62¢	$69.67	$48.42	+$5.23	52% 270-246 (516)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 52.9¢	$24.18	$25.62	+$1.44	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 61¢	$18.3	$16.8	-$1.5	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
TA takeormake<$100	Hornetsavg 60¢	$21.61	$15.84	-$5.76	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hornetsavg 40.9¢	$13.43	$1.16	+$1.59	57% 12531-9470 (22001)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$7,456.55

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$57.13

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Hornets$4,970.444.1¢-$14.6

Wizards$2,486.1557¢-$42.53

Anon455ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4,256.58

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$56.34

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Wizards$2,554.9855.8¢+$9.42

Hornets$1,701.642.8¢+$46.92

Nooserac

Hornets

Invested

$424.51

Value

$381.2

PnL

-$116.96

Record

52%

5657-5205 (10862)

RN1ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$245

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

Both legs:

Wizards$152.561¢-$12.5

Hornets$92.537¢+$5

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$69.67

Value

$48.42

PnL

+$5.23

Record

52%

270-246 (516)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$24.18

Value

$25.62

PnL

+$1.44

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$18.3

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$1.5

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

takeormake<$100

Hornets

Invested

$21.61

Value

$15.84

PnL

-$5.76

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

ghorrock<$100

Hornets

Invested

$13.43

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$1.59

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWizards 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.