Spread: Hornets (-5.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (60%) · Hornets at 63¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26

Hornets63¢Wizards37¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$7.68

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets63%

Wizards38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$76.75

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$5.09

Hornets3 traders

Total Value$67.18

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$12.77

Wizards — 40%Hornets — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Hornetsavg 43.4¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$82.82	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 43.4¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$118.77
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 56.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$35.95
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 57.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$5.96	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 57.3¢	$798.82	$808.61	+$9.79
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 43.3¢	$525.17	$509.42	-$15.75
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Hornetsavg 52.8¢	$118.26	$116.23	-$2.02	48% 413-442 (855)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 48¢	$53.76	$64.97	+$11.2
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 52.8¢	$64.49	$51.27	-$13.23
HRTradingCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 56.2¢	$50.1	$51.74	+$1.64	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
TA takeormake<$100	Hornetsavg 55¢	$57.63	$44.01	-$13.62	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 50¢	$21.56	$25.01	+$3.45	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Hornetsavg 44.9¢	$40.84	$15.37	+$0.65	57% 12531-9470 (22001)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Hornetsavg 40¢	$7.73	$7.8	+$0.21	57% 27008-20057 (47065)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$4,741.49

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$82.82

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Hornets$3,612.9143.4¢-$118.77

Wizards$1,128.5856.2¢+$35.95

Anon455ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,323.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$5.96

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Wizards$798.8257.3¢+$9.79

Hornets$525.1743.3¢-$15.75

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$118.26

Value

$116.23

PnL

-$2.02

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

Both legs:

Wizards$53.7648¢+$11.2

Hornets$64.4952.8¢-$13.23

HRTradingCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$50.1

Value

$51.74

PnL

+$1.64

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

takeormake<$100

Hornets

Invested

$57.63

Value

$44.01

PnL

-$13.62

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$21.56

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$3.45

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Hornets

Invested

$40.84

Value

$15.37

PnL

+$0.65

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Hornets

Invested

$7.73

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0.21

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.