Spread: Hornets (-4.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (80%) · Wizards at 56¢ · $215 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
5
Wizards 80%
$214.86
$4.24
56.6¢ → 56.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Wizardsavg 56¢ | $101.92 | $106.47 | +$4.55 | 53% 348-311 (659) |
 RN1<$100 | Wizardsavg 57¢ | $61.97 | $65.23 | -$0.54 | 54% 51828-43764 (95592) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Wizardsavg 59¢ | $34.06 | $18.55 | -$0.01 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Hornetsavg 41.1¢ | $12.96 | $12.6 | -$0.36 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Wizardsavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $12 | +$0.6 | 56% 6694-5364 (12058) |
Invested
$101.92
Value
$106.47
PnL
+$4.55
Record
53%
348-311 (659)
RN1<$100Invested
$61.97
Value
$65.23
PnL
-$0.54
Record
54%
51828-43764 (95592)
Invested
$34.06
Value
$18.55
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
24505-18852 (43357)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.96
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$0.36
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$11.4
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.6
Record
56%
6694-5364 (12058)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.