Spread: Hornets (-3.5)

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (25%) · Wizards at 53¢ · $219 held · ends Oct 26

Hornets47¢Wizards53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 25%

Total Value

$218.97

Combined PnL

-$6.64

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets47%

Wizards53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards1 trader

Total Value$115.09

Total Shares217

Combined PnL-$1.83

Hornets3 traders

Total Value$103.88

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$4.81

Wizards — 25%Hornets — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Wizardsavg 53.8¢	$116.92	$115.09	-$1.83	53% 333-296 (629)
VeryLucky888CTR	Hornetsavg 46.6¢	$256.15	$62.59	-$2.4	58% 36504-26536 (63040)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 47.5¢	$73.97	$39.04	-$2.36	56% 21200-16956 (38156)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.25	-$0.05	52% 4739-4344 (9083)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Wizards

Invested

$116.92

Value

$115.09

PnL

-$1.83

Record

53%

333-296 (629)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hornets

Invested

$256.15

Value

$62.59

PnL

-$2.4

Record

58%

36504-26536 (63040)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$73.97

Value

$39.04

PnL

-$2.36

Record

56%

21200-16956 (38156)

RLWGCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

4739-4344 (9083)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.