Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Hornets (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Hornets (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (80%) · Wizards at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
5
Wizards 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
-$21.84
44.5¢ → 48.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO goldmynameCTR | Wizardsavg 44¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$0 | 64% 92-52 (144) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Wizardsavg 46.6¢ | $627.78 | $606.42 | -$21.37 | 55% 12853-10588 (23441) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Wizardsavg 45.2¢ | $123.96 | $123.3 | -$0.66 | 62% 4966-3093 (8059) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Hornetsavg 54.1¢ | $54.03 | $53.25 | -$0.78 | 56% 21078-16865 (37943) |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 54.1¢ | $27.59 | $28.05 | +$0.46 | |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 47.2¢ | $26.44 | $25.2 | -$1.24 | |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Hornetsavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $11 | +$0.2 | 55% 6546-5254 (11800) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 45.2¢ | $3.39 | $3.37 | -$0.02 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
Invested
$2,441.58
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
92-52 (144)
Invested
$627.78
Value
$606.42
PnL
-$21.37
Record
55%
12853-10588 (23441)
Invested
$123.96
Value
$123.3
PnL
-$0.66
Record
62%
4966-3093 (8059)
Invested
$54.03
Value
$53.25
PnL
-$0.78
Record
56%
21078-16865 (37943)
Both legs:
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.2
Record
55%
6546-5254 (11800)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.39
Value
$3.37
PnL
-$0.02
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.