Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Hornets (86%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Wizards (-2.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (33%) · Wizards at 14¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
6
Wizards 33%
$5.0K
-$8.37
40¢ → 14.5¢
-64% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BB bbb17367162806CTR | Wizardsavg 40¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$69.7 | 49% 100-105 (205) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Hornetsavg 58.4¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$54.29 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
 HRTrading | Hornetsavg 60¢ | $168.09 | $167.9 | +$12.12 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
 RN1CTR | Wizardsavg 40¢ | $100 | $90 | -$6.25 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Hornetsavg 60¢ | $18.18 | $17.52 | +$0.16 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Hornetsavg 60.5¢ | $18.15 | $14.1 | +$1.02 | 57% 12531-9470 (22001) |
Invested
$2,788
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$69.7
Record
49%
100-105 (205)
Invested
$1,926.04
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$54.29
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
HRTradingInvested
$168.09
Value
$167.9
PnL
+$12.12
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
RN1CTRInvested
$100
Value
$90
PnL
-$6.25
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$18.18
Value
$17.52
PnL
+$0.16
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Invested
$18.15
Value
$14.1
PnL
+$1.02
Record
57%
12531-9470 (22001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.