Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Hornets (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Wizards (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (57%) · Wizards at 1.5¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
7
Wizards 57%
1 arb excluded
$10.4K
-$206.07
43.9¢ → 1.5¢
-97% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Wizardsavg 40.4¢ | $7.5K | $7.6K | +$173.38 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 40.4¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | -$44.32 | |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 55.3¢ | $2.5K | $2.8K | +$217.71 | |
GA gagarin59CTR | Wizardsavg 45¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$170.35 | 53% 597-533 (1130) |
 RN1CTR | Wizardsavg 41.5¢ | $492.86 | $478.46 | -$14.11 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
TA takeormake | Hornetsavg 80.6¢ | $515.27 | $476.32 | -$38.94 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
AN Anon455 | Hornetsavg 57¢ | $340.46 | $358.38 | +$17.92 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Hornetsavg 60¢ | $36.3 | $35.09 | +$0.3 | 50% 3628-3599 (7227) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 41.3¢ | $29.74 | $28.8 | -$0.58 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 30.3¢ | $23.43 | $14.76 | -$0.3 | 57% 12531-9470 (22001) |
Invested
$7,459.01
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$173.38
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,533.18
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$170.35
Record
53%
597-533 (1130)
RN1CTRInvested
$492.86
Value
$478.46
PnL
-$14.11
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$515.27
Value
$476.32
PnL
-$38.94
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
Invested
$340.46
Value
$358.38
PnL
+$17.92
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
Invested
$36.3
Value
$35.09
PnL
+$0.3
Record
50%
3628-3599 (7227)
Invested
$29.74
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$0.58
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Invested
$23.43
Value
$14.76
PnL
-$0.3
Record
57%
12531-9470 (22001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.