Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Hornets (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Wizards vs. Hornets
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (80%) · Wizards at 45¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
5
Wizards 80%
$5.8K
-$30.73
46.5¢ → 44.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Wizardsavg 45.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$60.82 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
DO DolphinBaller | Hornetsavg 48.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$129.36 | 46% 65-76 (141) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Wizardsavg 46¢ | $3.2K | $1.6K | -$86.19 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Wizardsavg 51¢ | $510 | $470 | -$15 | 40% 691-1022 (1713) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 47.3¢ | $34.09 | $36 | +$1.91 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
Invested
$2,016.25
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$60.82
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Invested
$1,745.22
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$129.36
Record
46%
65-76 (141)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$3,166.87
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$86.19
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$510
Value
$470
PnL
-$15
Record
40%
691-1022 (1713)
Invested
$34.09
Value
$36
PnL
+$1.91
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.