Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 99¢ · $555 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$554.65
$27.08
56.3¢ → 99¢
+76% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 56¢ | $497.11 | $488.23 | +$31.07 | 67% 3583-1733 (5316) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Underavg 60.8¢ | $39.03 | $35.3 | -$3.73 | 50% 632-627 (1259) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.4¢ | $26.69 | $25 | -$0.34 | 55% 15069-12329 (27398) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $5 | $3.2 | -$1.8 | 56% 6515-5214 (11729) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $1.04 | $2.93 | +$1.89 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
Invested
$497.11
Value
$488.23
PnL
+$31.07
Record
67%
3583-1733 (5316)
Invested
$39.03
Value
$35.3
PnL
-$3.73
Record
50%
632-627 (1259)
Invested
$26.69
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.34
Record
55%
15069-12329 (27398)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$1.8
Record
56%
6515-5214 (11729)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$1.89
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.