Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 55¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 25

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$129.99

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 54.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,409

Combined PnL+$128.11

Over2 traders

Total Value$629.69

Total Shares1,312

Combined PnL+$1.88

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$8.6K	$8.7K	+$113.72	55% 12111-9992 (22103)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.8¢	$4.6K	$4.8K	+$241.97
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$128.25
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 50.9¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$129.58	50% 1012-1005 (2017)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$480	$480	-$0	69% 4259-1919 (6178)
GO goldmynameCTR	Overavg 47¢	$204.79	$149.69	+$1.88	66% 83-42 (125)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 54¢	$604.14	$136.25	-$1.61	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$122.32	$119.69	-$2.63	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$88.28	$83.72	-$4.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.6¢	$34.04	$35.97	+$1.93
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 54¢	$14.58	$14.72	+$0.14	75% 2665-901 (3566)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$8,633.58

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$113.72

Record

55%

12111-9992 (22103)

Both legs:

Under$4,599.3450.8¢+$241.97

Over$4,034.2448¢-$128.25

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$6,178.93

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$129.58

Record

50%

1012-1005 (2017)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$480

Value

$480

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

4259-1919 (6178)

goldmynameCTR

Over

Invested

$204.79

Value

$149.69

PnL

+$1.88

Record

66%

83-42 (125)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$604.14

Value

$136.25

PnL

-$1.61

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$122.32

Value

$119.69

PnL

-$2.63

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

Both legs:

Over$88.2848¢-$4.56

Under$34.0451.6¢+$1.93

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$14.58

Value

$14.72

PnL

+$0.14

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.