Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$44.21
47.6¢ → 48.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 47.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$64.17 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
 ComingBack | Overavg 51¢ | $775.96 | $783.56 | +$7.61 | 62% 3695-2244 (5939) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Overavg 53¢ | $530 | $500 | -$30 | 57% 4484-3315 (7799) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $122.5 | $125 | +$2.5 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 51.4¢ | $93.31 | $94.5 | +$1.19 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51.4¢ | $64.82 | $63 | -$1.82 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.2¢ | $28.49 | $31.5 | +$3.01 | |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.17 | $2.08 | -$0.06 | 56% 6385-5115 (11500) |
Invested
$1,321.32
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$64.17
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
ComingBackInvested
$775.96
Value
$783.56
PnL
+$7.61
Record
62%
3695-2244 (5939)
Invested
$530
Value
$500
PnL
-$30
Record
57%
4484-3315 (7799)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$122.5
Value
$125
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$93.31
Value
$94.5
PnL
+$1.19
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Both legs:
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$2.17
Value
$2.08
PnL
-$0.06
Record
56%
6385-5115 (11500)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.