Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (72%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 28¢ · $15K held

Over28¢Under72¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

-$32.46

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 28.5¢

-45% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,891

Combined PnL-$32.46

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$10.3K	$10.2K	-$140.6	55% 12487-10261 (22748)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$6.1K	$6.5K	+$396.15
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.6¢	$4.3K	$3.8K	-$536.75
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 53¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$52.24	67% 3573-1724 (5297)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$55.5	46% 327-379 (706)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$831.76	$932.58	+$100.82
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$282.59	$237.27	-$45.32
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$470.9	$436.95	-$33.95	52% 7014-6385 (13399)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 52¢	$337.23	$350.2	+$12.97	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 42¢	$229.59	$270.59	+$41	56% 2114-1685 (3799)
RN1CTR	Overavg 53.9¢	$153.94	$148.59	-$5.36	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$68.11	$75.06	+$6.95	55% 3088-2507 (5595)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 55.6¢	$37.83	$36.18	-$1.08	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 48.4¢	$9.69	$8.92	-$0.78	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.4	$1.43	+$0.03	63% 23323-13916 (37239)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$10,346.69

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$140.6

Record

55%

12487-10261 (22748)

Both legs:

Over$6,057.6354¢+$396.15

Under$4,289.0648.6¢-$536.75

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$2,768.72

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$52.24

Record

67%

3573-1724 (5297)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,114.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$55.5

Record

46%

327-379 (706)

Both legs:

Under$831.7649.5¢+$100.82

Over$282.5953¢-$45.32

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$470.9

Value

$436.95

PnL

-$33.95

Record

52%

7014-6385 (13399)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$337.23

Value

$350.2

PnL

+$12.97

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$229.59

Value

$270.59

PnL

+$41

Record

56%

2114-1685 (3799)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$153.94

Value

$148.59

PnL

-$5.36

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.11

Value

$75.06

PnL

+$6.95

Record

55%

3088-2507 (5595)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.83

Value

$36.18

PnL

-$1.08

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.69

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$0.78

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

63%

23323-13916 (37239)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.