Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (98%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 2.1¢ · $745 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$744.89
$39.06
45.5¢ → 2.1¢
-95% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 49.4¢ | $292.61 | $405.66 | +$113.05 | 46% 328-382 (710) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 46.7¢ | $388.24 | $303.68 | -$84.56 | 52% 7071-6423 (13494) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $8.36 | $17.48 | +$9.12 | 57% 6391-4730 (11121) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 27.1¢ | $6.38 | $8.92 | +$2.55 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $6.79 | $6.44 | -$0.35 | 55% 15069-12329 (27398) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $2.7 | -$0.75 | 62% 23778-14304 (38082) |
Invested
$292.61
Value
$405.66
PnL
+$113.05
Record
46%
328-382 (710)
Invested
$388.24
Value
$303.68
PnL
-$84.56
Record
52%
7071-6423 (13494)
Invested
$8.36
Value
$17.48
PnL
+$9.12
Record
57%
6391-4730 (11121)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.38
Value
$8.92
PnL
+$2.55
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$6.44
PnL
-$0.35
Record
55%
15069-12329 (27398)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.75
Record
62%
23778-14304 (38082)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.