Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (97%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Under3¢Under97¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$33.28

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Under3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$642.42

Total Shares1,137

Combined PnL+$98.56

Over8 traders

Total Value$980.71

Total Shares2,509

Combined PnL-$65.28

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 45.7¢	$1.0K	$634.76	+$163.42	46% 328-382 (710)
AN Anon455	Overavg 37¢	$376.12	$390.35	+$14.24	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 49.2¢	$355.87	$278.62	-$77.25	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
SE seeeeeeb	Overavg 39¢	$155.22	$153.23	-$1.99	49% 359-381 (740)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 39.6¢	$86.25	$83.93	-$2.32	71% 18315-7461 (25776)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 40.7¢	$43.88	$39.87	-$4.01	62% 23778-14304 (38082)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 26.1¢	$14.59	$21.5	+$6.91	57% 6391-4730 (11121)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 66¢	$12.18	$11.2	-$0.98	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 67.2¢	$72.52	$7.66	-$64.86	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 36¢	$1.87	$2	+$0.13	55% 3104-2515 (5619)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,032.13

Value

$634.76

PnL

+$163.42

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$376.12

Value

$390.35

PnL

+$14.24

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$355.87

Value

$278.62

PnL

-$77.25

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

seeeeeeb

Over

Invested

$155.22

Value

$153.23

PnL

-$1.99

Record

49%

359-381 (740)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$86.25

Value

$83.93

PnL

-$2.32

Record

71%

18315-7461 (25776)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$43.88

Value

$39.87

PnL

-$4.01

Record

62%

23778-14304 (38082)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$14.59

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$6.91

Record

57%

6391-4730 (11121)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$12.18

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$0.98

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$72.52

Value

$7.66

PnL

-$64.86

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$1.87

Value

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.1%

2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2346.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

2446.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.