Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (97%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 3.5¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$29.12

Smart Money Entry

39.1¢ → 3.5¢

-91% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,716

Combined PnL+$14.1

Under3 traders

Total Value$353.8

Total Shares615

Combined PnL+$15.02

Over — 73%Under — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Overavg 42¢	$300	$317.86	+$17.86	53% 2489-2205 (4694)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 41.1¢	$234.28	$262.25	+$27.97	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$247.59	$234.52	-$13.07	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 48.9¢	$292.45	$165.24	+$22.36	46% 328-382 (710)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 53.5¢	$155.91	$157.32	+$1.41	50% 1042-1039 (2081)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Overavg 20¢	$113.16	$97.48	-$15.68	62% 23778-14304 (38082)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$87.3	$89.24	+$1.94	75% 6267-2062 (8329)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 50.9¢	$67.92	$61.36	-$6.56	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 81¢	$39.99	$31.24	-$8.75	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
SH shoemanhereCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$12.18	$13.63	+$1.45	63% 4969-2963 (7932)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$4.27	$4.47	+$0.19	54% 5794-4965 (10759)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Over

Invested

$300

Value

$317.86

PnL

+$17.86

Record

53%

2489-2205 (4694)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$234.28

Value

$262.25

PnL

+$27.97

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$247.59

Value

$234.52

PnL

-$13.07

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$292.45

Value

$165.24

PnL

+$22.36

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$155.91

Value

$157.32

PnL

+$1.41

Record

50%

1042-1039 (2081)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Over

Invested

$113.16

Value

$97.48

PnL

-$15.68

Record

62%

23778-14304 (38082)

torta.techCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.3

Value

$89.24

PnL

+$1.94

Record

75%

6267-2062 (8329)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.92

Value

$61.36

PnL

-$6.56

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$39.99

Value

$31.24

PnL

-$8.75

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

shoemanhereCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.18

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$1.45

Record

63%

4969-2963 (7932)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.47

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

5794-4965 (10759)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.7%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2044.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

2144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.