Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (93%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 7.5¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$173.26

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 7.5¢

-84% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,942

Combined PnL-$170.45

Under4 traders

Total Value$271.03

Total Shares507

Combined PnL-$2.81

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$537.42	$536.01	-$0.37	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.9¢	$281.89	$288.43	+$12.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.6¢	$255.53	$247.58	-$12.8
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 48.2¢	$464.61	$483.52	+$18.91	46% 328-382 (710)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.2¢	$348.08	$368.67	+$20.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$116.53	$114.85	-$1.68
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 43.7¢	$632.72	$463.07	-$169.65	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$392.02	$396.77	+$4.74	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
TO torta.techCTR	Overavg 49.8¢	$266.8	$262.64	-$4.16	75% 6267-2062 (8329)
SE seeeeeeb	Underavg 51.9¢	$103.81	$102	-$1.81	49% 359-381 (740)
MO mooseborzoii<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$70.31	$69.5	-$0.81	50% 1042-1039 (2081)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 51.8¢	$60.28	$59.31	-$0.97	71% 18315-7461 (25776)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$46.55	$45.44	-$1.11	53% 2489-2205 (4694)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 51.1¢	$39.44	$40.22	+$0.78	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$13.4	$13.13	-$0.27	54% 5794-4965 (10759)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$5.88	$5.88	+$0	50% 15913-16145 (32058)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$537.42

Value

$536.01

PnL

-$0.37

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

Both legs:

Over$281.8947.9¢+$12.42

Under$255.5352.6¢-$12.8

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$464.61

Value

$483.52

PnL

+$18.91

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

Both legs:

Under$348.0848.2¢+$20.59

Over$116.5349.7¢-$1.68

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$632.72

Value

$463.07

PnL

-$169.65

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$392.02

Value

$396.77

PnL

+$4.74

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

torta.techCTR

Over

Invested

$266.8

Value

$262.64

PnL

-$4.16

Record

75%

6267-2062 (8329)

seeeeeeb

Under

Invested

$103.81

Value

$102

PnL

-$1.81

Record

49%

359-381 (740)

mooseborzoii<$100

Under

Invested

$70.31

Value

$69.5

PnL

-$0.81

Record

50%

1042-1039 (2081)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$60.28

Value

$59.31

PnL

-$0.97

Record

71%

18315-7461 (25776)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.55

Value

$45.44

PnL

-$1.11

Record

53%

2489-2205 (4694)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$39.44

Value

$40.22

PnL

+$0.78

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.4

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$0.27

Record

54%

5794-4965 (10759)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

15913-16145 (32058)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.