Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$302.29

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 93.8¢

+96% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,275

Combined PnL+$202.87

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,973

Combined PnL+$99.42

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 47¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$149.04	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 49¢	$818.54	$885.36	+$66.82	50% 1042-1039 (2081)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 50.2¢	$671.03	$816.18	+$145.15	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$337.38	$291.89	-$45.49	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49¢	$237.03	$101.92	-$14.22	46% 328-382 (710)
SH shoemanhere<$100	Underavg 45¢	$48.77	$57.44	+$8.67	63% 4969-2963 (7932)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 53¢	$34.96	$34.96	-$6.6	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 56¢	$21.28	$20.14	-$1.14	62% 23778-14304 (38082)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.65	+$0.3	51% 4438-4219 (8657)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 39.2¢	$2.69	$2.44	-$0.25	56% 1895-1497 (3392)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,811.83

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$149.04

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$818.54

Value

$885.36

PnL

+$66.82

Record

50%

1042-1039 (2081)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$671.03

Value

$816.18

PnL

+$145.15

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$337.38

Value

$291.89

PnL

-$45.49

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$237.03

Value

$101.92

PnL

-$14.22

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

shoemanhere<$100

Under

Invested

$48.77

Value

$57.44

PnL

+$8.67

Record

63%

4969-2963 (7932)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$34.96

Value

$34.96

PnL

-$6.6

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$21.28

Value

$20.14

PnL

-$1.14

Record

62%

23778-14304 (38082)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.69

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.