Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (88%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 215.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 12¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.7K
$234.79
56.7¢ → 12¢
-79% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 57.2¢ | $906.82 | $1.1K | +$163.55 | 55% 3104-2515 (5619) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 32.4¢ | $233.19 | $278.92 | +$45.73 | 56% 2130-1695 (3825) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 51.2¢ | $152.7 | $184.85 | +$32.15 | 52% 7071-6423 (13494) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 65.9¢ | $53.68 | $55.39 | +$1.71 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 46.3¢ | $121.18 | $45.44 | -$10.67 | 46% 328-382 (710) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $13.69 | $16.01 | +$2.32 | 62% 23778-14304 (38082) |
Invested
$906.82
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$163.55
Record
55%
3104-2515 (5619)
Invested
$233.19
Value
$278.92
PnL
+$45.73
Record
56%
2130-1695 (3825)
Invested
$152.7
Value
$184.85
PnL
+$32.15
Record
52%
7071-6423 (13494)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$53.68
Value
$55.39
PnL
+$1.71
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
Invested
$121.18
Value
$45.44
PnL
-$10.67
Record
46%
328-382 (710)
Invested
$13.69
Value
$16.01
PnL
+$2.32
Record
62%
23778-14304 (38082)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.