Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Timberwolves (98%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (43%) · Raptors at 1.9¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Timberwolves98¢Raptors2¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 43%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 1.9¢

-96% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves98%

Raptors2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares10,913

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,165

Combined PnL-$277.89

Raptors — 43%Timberwolves — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Raptorsavg 45.1¢	$4.3K	$5.8K	+$1.6K	46% 328-382 (710)
TO torta.tech	Timberwolvesavg 55¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$251.9	75% 6267-2062 (8329)
TA takeormake	Timberwolvesavg 48.9¢	$153.9	$151.09	-$2.81	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176	Timberwolvesavg 56¢	$100.27	$85.88	-$14.39	54% 5794-4965 (10759)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Timberwolvesavg 57.8¢	$51.86	$43.06	-$8.8	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 73.4¢	$40.29	$37.46	-$2.83	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.6	+$0.3	56% 1895-1497 (3392)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Raptors

Invested

$4,286.53

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

torta.tech

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,969.55

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$251.9

Record

75%

6267-2062 (8329)

takeormake

Timberwolves

Invested

$153.9

Value

$151.09

PnL

-$2.81

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176

Timberwolves

Invested

$100.27

Value

$85.88

PnL

-$14.39

Record

54%

5794-4965 (10759)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$51.86

Value

$43.06

PnL

-$8.8

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$40.29

Value

$37.46

PnL

-$2.83

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3132.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

3233.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.