Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (50%) · Timberwolves at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Timberwolves>99¢Raptors<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 99.1¢

+76% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves99%

Raptors1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares10,686

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$664.91

Total Shares1,194

Combined PnL+$70.78

Timberwolves — 50%Raptors — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Timberwolvesavg 56.9¢	$5.4K	$4.1K	$-1.3K	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Raptorsavg 51.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$54.63	46% 328-382 (710)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 51.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$115.89
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 51.3¢	$403.75	$342.49	-$61.26
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 54.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.49	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 54.1¢	$579.05	$605.04	+$25.98
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 46¢	$497.49	$470.01	-$27.47
RU Ruler11CTR	Raptorsavg 49¢	$490	$550	+$60	51% 266-254 (520)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Timberwolvesavg 45¢	$450	$435	-$15	53% 322-284 (606)
TA takeormake	Timberwolvesavg 71¢	$202.48	$124.02	-$78.46	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 47.3¢	$82	$97.32	+$15.32	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 69.2¢	$22.13	$17.6	-$4.54	55% 15069-12329 (27398)

HomeRunHazard

Timberwolves

Invested

$5,351.68

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1,526.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$54.63

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

Both legs:

Raptors$1,122.5151.2¢+$115.89

Timberwolves$403.7551.3¢-$61.26

Anon455ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1,076.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.49

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

Both legs:

Raptors$579.0554.1¢+$25.98

Timberwolves$497.4946¢-$27.47

Ruler11CTR

Raptors

Invested

$490

Value

$550

PnL

+$60

Record

51%

266-254 (520)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Timberwolves

Invested

$450

Value

$435

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

322-284 (606)

takeormake

Timberwolves

Invested

$202.48

Value

$124.02

PnL

-$78.46

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$82

Value

$97.32

PnL

+$15.32

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$22.13

Value

$17.6

PnL

-$4.54

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.