Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Timberwolves (99%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 0.9¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Timberwolves>99¢Raptors<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 40%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$9.37

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 0.9¢

-98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves99%

Raptors1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,038

Combined PnL-$85.47

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,082

Combined PnL+$94.84

Timberwolves — 60%Raptors — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Timberwolvesavg 56.6¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$93.35	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
AN Anon455CTR	Raptorsavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$277.26	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
TO tomb2456CTR	Raptorsavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$180	51% 250-244 (494)
HRTrading<$100	Timberwolvesavg 59.4¢	$95.96	$95.36	-$0.6	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
TA takeormake<$100	Timberwolvesavg 54.9¢	$78.15	$76.93	-$1.22	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$60	$67.5	+$7.5	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 49¢	$37.38	$35.08	-$2.3	46% 328-382 (710)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Timberwolvesavg 32¢	$16	$27	+$2.25	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
RL RLWG<$100	Timberwolvesavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.7	-$0.05	51% 4438-4219 (8657)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 54¢	$2.25	$2.12	-$0.12	54% 1468-1227 (2695)

HomeRunHazard

Timberwolves

Invested

$2,015.54

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$93.35

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

Anon455CTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,146.79

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$277.26

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

tomb2456CTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,560

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$180

Record

51%

250-244 (494)

HRTrading<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$95.96

Value

$95.36

PnL

-$0.6

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

takeormake<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$78.15

Value

$76.93

PnL

-$1.22

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

justaluckydude<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$60

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$37.38

Value

$35.08

PnL

-$2.3

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$16

Value

$27

PnL

+$2.25

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

RLWG<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.12

Record

54%

1468-1227 (2695)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5052.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5152.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.