Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Timberwolves (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (57%) · Raptors at 0.9¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Timberwolves>99¢Raptors<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$3.07

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 0.9¢

-98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves99%

Raptors1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,778

Combined PnL-$32.81

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$237.06

Total Shares424

Combined PnL+$29.75

Raptors — 57%Timberwolves — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO tomb2456CTR	Raptorsavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$30	51% 250-244 (494)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 60¢	$751.44	$722.3	-$35.17	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 60¢	$544.2	$489.78	-$68.03
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 41¢	$207.24	$232.52	+$32.86
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Raptorsavg 44.3¢	$317.14	$329.63	+$22.11	46% 328-382 (710)
JU justaluckydude	Timberwolvesavg 54.4¢	$141.02	$139.86	-$1.16	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Timberwolvesavg 35¢	$49.16	$73.04	+$23.88	55% 9305-7626 (16931)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 65¢	$65	$46	-$19	54% 257-219 (476)
HRTrading<$100	Timberwolvesavg 69.9¢	$17.13	$24.16	+$7.03	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 62¢	$22.94	$17.02	-$5.92	55% 15069-12329 (27398)

tomb2456CTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,410

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

250-244 (494)

Anon455ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$751.44

Value

$722.3

PnL

-$35.17

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$544.260¢-$68.03

Raptors$207.2441¢+$32.86

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Raptors

Invested

$317.14

Value

$329.63

PnL

+$22.11

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

justaluckydude

Timberwolves

Invested

$141.02

Value

$139.86

PnL

-$1.16

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

BoomLaLa<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$49.16

Value

$73.04

PnL

+$23.88

Record

55%

9305-7626 (16931)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$65

Value

$46

PnL

-$19

Record

54%

257-219 (476)

HRTrading<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$17.13

Value

$24.16

PnL

+$7.03

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$22.94

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$5.92

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4917.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

5017.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.