Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (75%) · Raptors at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
4
Raptors 75%
3 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$3.26
57.5¢ → 54¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 44¢ | $805.06 | $854.95 | +$49.89 | 55% 12469-10246 (22715) |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 44¢ | $573.49 | $645.55 | +$72.06 | |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 55.8¢ | $231.57 | $209.39 | -$22.18 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 60¢ | $407.5 | $392.5 | -$15 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 60¢ | $300 | $285 | -$15 | |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 43¢ | $107.5 | $107.5 | +$0 | |
QU QuentinChen | Raptorsavg 57¢ | $379.53 | $379.53 | +$0 | 45% 225-271 (496) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Raptorsavg 59¢ | $96.17 | $92.91 | -$3.26 | 49% 3180-3341 (6521) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 43¢ | $48.16 | $48.16 | +$0 | 61% 4723-2962 (7685) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 63.7¢ | $47.91 | $45.48 | -$2.22 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 63.7¢ | $27.27 | $24.38 | -$2.67 | |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 42.1¢ | $20.65 | $21.1 | +$0.46 | |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Raptorsavg 59¢ | $21.83 | $21.83 | +$0 | 67% 3569-1722 (5291) |
Invested
$805.06
Value
$854.95
PnL
+$49.89
Record
55%
12469-10246 (22715)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$407.5
Value
$392.5
PnL
-$15
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Both legs:
Invested
$379.53
Value
$379.53
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
225-271 (496)
Invested
$96.17
Value
$92.91
PnL
-$3.26
Record
49%
3180-3341 (6521)
Invested
$48.16
Value
$48.16
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
4723-2962 (7685)
Invested
$47.91
Value
$45.48
PnL
-$2.22
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.83
Value
$21.83
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
3569-1722 (5291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.