Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (38%) · Timberwolves at 51¢ · $34K held · ended Oct 25

Timberwolves51¢Raptors49¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 50.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves51%

Raptors50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves5 traders

Total Value$26.5K

Total Shares57,487

Combined PnL-$554.15

Raptors8 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares14,756

Combined PnL-$689.19

Timberwolves — 38%Raptors — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1	Timberwolvesavg 47¢	$21.2K	$20.7K	-$450.15	39% 80-125 (205)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Raptorsavg 53.8¢	$4.6K	$4.0K	-$629.91	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
SU SunlineTicker	Timberwolvesavg 46¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$73.6	67% 3569-1722 (5291)
OL OldZz	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$211.22	46% 77-90 (167)
VeryLucky888CTR	Raptorsavg 53.1¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	+$49.52	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
AC acorpCTR	Raptorsavg 62¢	$821.48	$702.24	-$119.25	49% 566-583 (1149)
RN1ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 56¢	$593.2	$583.41	-$9.79	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 46¢	$290.24	$296.68	+$6.44
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 56¢	$302.96	$286.73	-$16.23
QU QuentinChenCTR	Raptorsavg 53¢	$424	$424	+$0	45% 225-271 (496)
MO mooseborzoii	Timberwolvesavg 47.5¢	$333.48	$329.98	-$3.5	50% 1033-1030 (2063)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Raptorsavg 51¢	$285.66	$302.46	+$16.8	47% 327-376 (703)
GO goldmyname	Timberwolvesavg 39¢	$193.05	$232.65	+$37.13	67% 89-43 (132)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 56¢	$73.5	$69.56	-$3.94	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 60.8¢	$25.52	$22.26	-$3.47	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 48¢	$8.41	$9.46	+$1.05	56% 1802-1398 (3200)

RJW1

Timberwolves

Invested

$21,157.22

Value

$20.7K

PnL

-$450.15

Record

39%

80-125 (205)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Raptors

Invested

$4,616.21

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$629.91

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

SunlineTicker

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,251.65

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$73.6

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

OldZz

Timberwolves

Invested

$2,143.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$211.22

Record

46%

77-90 (167)

VeryLucky888CTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,866.31

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$49.52

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

acorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

$821.48

Value

$702.24

PnL

-$119.25

Record

49%

566-583 (1149)

RN1ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$593.2

Value

$583.41

PnL

-$9.79

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$290.2446¢+$6.44

Raptors$302.9656¢-$16.23

QuentinChenCTR

Raptors

Invested

$424

Value

$424

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

225-271 (496)

mooseborzoii

Timberwolves

Invested

$333.48

Value

$329.98

PnL

-$3.5

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Raptors

Invested

$285.66

Value

$302.46

PnL

+$16.8

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

goldmyname

Timberwolves

Invested

$193.05

Value

$232.65

PnL

+$37.13

Record

67%

89-43 (132)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$73.5

Value

$69.56

PnL

-$3.94

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$25.52

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$3.47

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$8.41

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$1.05

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.