Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (33%) · Timberwolves at 55¢ · $223K held · ended Oct 25

Timberwolves55¢Raptors45¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$223.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 54.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves55%

Raptors46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$193.4K

Total Shares382,968

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Raptors8 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,592

Combined PnL-$223.3

Timberwolves — 33%Raptors — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpRaptors 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrRaptors 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$181.2K	$179.5K	$-1.7K	39% 80-125 (205)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Raptorsavg 49.2¢	$24.7K	$24.1K	-$537.83	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 49.2¢	$16.0K	$14.8K	$-1.2K
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 50.5¢	$8.7K	$9.3K	+$678.29
BO BoggsFromShawshank	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$10.5K	$10.7K	+$105.46	51% 1080-1035 (2115)
MO mooseborzoii	Timberwolvesavg 50.4¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$39.19	50% 1033-1030 (2063)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Raptorsavg 50¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$119.75	67% 3569-1722 (5291)
RN1ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 51.8¢	$803.54	$768.83	-$34.72	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 51.8¢	$546.14	$506.23	-$39.92
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$257.4	$262.6	+$5.2
FO forecastication4CTR	Raptorsavg 53¢	$742	$672	-$70	48% 946-1016 (1962)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Raptorsavg 48¢	$335.52	$335.52	+$0	75% 2697-920 (3617)
LA LaarsYCTR	Raptorsavg 49¢	$300.86	$294.72	-$6.14	50% 3018-3040 (6058)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Raptorsavg 54¢	$198.18	$176.11	-$22.07	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 45.4¢	$66.83	$68.92	+$2.09	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 45.4¢	$35.89	$41.08	+$5.19
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 53.3¢	$30.94	$27.84	-$3.1
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 53¢	$54	$48.91	-$5.09	54% 255-214 (469)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 49¢	$19.6	$19.4	-$0.2	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.4	-$0.05	51% 4228-4041 (8269)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Timberwolvesavg 41¢	$0.69	$0.88	+$0.19	55% 9244-7582 (16826)

RJW1

Timberwolves

Invested

$181,155.01

Value

$179.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

39%

80-125 (205)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$24,668.68

Value

$24.1K

PnL

-$537.83

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

Both legs:

Raptors$16,007.2649.2¢$-1.2K

Timberwolves$8,661.4250.5¢+$678.29

BoggsFromShawshank

Timberwolves

Invested

$10,545.8

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$105.46

Record

51%

1080-1035 (2115)

mooseborzoii

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,285.39

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$39.19

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

SunlineTickerCTR

Raptors

Invested

$3,221.77

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$119.75

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

RN1ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$803.54

Value

$768.83

PnL

-$34.72

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

Both legs:

Raptors$546.1451.8¢-$39.92

Timberwolves$257.451¢+$5.2

forecastication4CTR

Raptors

Invested

$742

Value

$672

PnL

-$70

Record

48%

946-1016 (1962)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Raptors

Invested

$335.52

Value

$335.52

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

2697-920 (3617)

LaarsYCTR

Raptors

Invested

$300.86

Value

$294.72

PnL

-$6.14

Record

50%

3018-3040 (6058)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Raptors

Invested

$198.18

Value

$176.11

PnL

-$22.07

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$66.83

Value

$68.92

PnL

+$2.09

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$35.8945.4¢+$5.19

Raptors$30.9453.3¢-$3.1

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$54

Value

$48.91

PnL

-$5.09

Record

54%

255-214 (469)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

RLWGCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

BoomLaLa<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.19

Record

55%

9244-7582 (16826)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpRaptors 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrRaptors 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.