Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (29%) · Timberwolves at 56¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Timberwolves56¢Raptors44¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 29%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$100.02

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 56.5¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

2 of 7 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves56%

Raptors44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves2 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,168

Combined PnL+$225.81

Raptors5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,591

Combined PnL-$325.83

Timberwolves — 29%Raptors — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaptors 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Timberwolvesavg 50.4¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$226.1	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 48.1¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$156.1	67% 3569-1722 (5291)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 48.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$156.1
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR	Raptorsavg 55¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$275	55% 1192-968 (2160)
RN1ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$78.05	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 55¢	$778.37	$778.37	-$0
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 52.7¢	$536.31	$458.26	-$78.05
GO goldmynameCTR	Raptorsavg 52¢	$382.2	$334.43	-$47.78	67% 89-43 (132)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 47.8¢	$114.82	$119.85	+$5.03	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 47.8¢	$66.56	$76.65	+$10.09
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.3¢	$48.26	$43.2	-$5.06
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Timberwolvesavg 44¢	$25.63	$31.46	-$0.29	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 46.4¢	$25.28	$24.53	-$0.75	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 46.6¢	$14.9	$14.4	-$0.5	51% 4228-4041 (8269)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 54¢	$10.8	$9	-$1.8	56% 6455-5169 (11624)

HomeRunHazard

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,515.66

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$226.1

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2,150.5

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$156.1

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$1,095.7148.1¢+$156.1

Raptors$1,054.845¢+$0

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,512.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$275

Record

55%

1192-968 (2160)

RN1ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,314.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$78.05

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$778.3755¢-$0

Raptors$536.3152.7¢-$78.05

goldmynameCTR

Raptors

Invested

$382.2

Value

$334.43

PnL

-$47.78

Record

67%

89-43 (132)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$114.82

Value

$119.85

PnL

+$5.03

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$66.5647.8¢+$10.09

Raptors$48.2650.3¢-$5.06

NatoAlfista<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$25.63

Value

$31.46

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$25.28

Value

$24.53

PnL

-$0.75

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

RLWGCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$14.9

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$10.8

Value

PnL

-$1.8

Record

56%

6455-5169 (11624)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

2 of 7 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaptors 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.