Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Raptors (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (75%) · Timberwolves at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
4
Timberwolves 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
-$31.12
48.2¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FF ff3364CTR | Timberwolvesavg 48¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$0 | 51% 689-662 (1351) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Timberwolvesavg 50¢ | $351.5 | $337.44 | -$17.58 | 69% 4259-1919 (6178) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Timberwolvesavg 48.7¢ | $716.25 | $95.52 | -$13.54 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Raptorsavg 52¢ | $66.56 | $66.56 | +$0 | 75% 2665-901 (3566) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 52.5¢ | $51.02 | $50.97 | -$0.05 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 52.5¢ | $30.14 | $29.85 | -$0.29 | |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 47.5¢ | $20.88 | $21.12 | +$0.24 |
Invested
$3,276
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
689-662 (1351)
Invested
$351.5
Value
$337.44
PnL
-$17.58
Record
69%
4259-1919 (6178)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$716.25
Value
$95.52
PnL
-$13.54
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$66.56
Value
$66.56
PnL
+$0
Record
75%
2665-901 (3566)
Invested
$51.02
Value
$50.97
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.