Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (70%) · Timberwolves at 98¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

Timberwolves98¢Raptors2¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

-$768.44

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 98¢

+102% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves98%

Raptors2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,372

Combined PnL+$224.61

Timberwolves7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,650

Combined PnL-$993.05

Raptors — 30%Timberwolves — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 45.6¢	$9.2K	$9.3K	+$66.34	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 51.6¢	$4.5K	$5.8K	+$1.3K
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 45.6¢	$4.7K	$3.4K	$-1.2K
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Raptorsavg 59.8¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$224.7	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603	Timberwolvesavg 45.9¢	$963.57	$702.54	-$261.03	50% 17-17 (34)
AD adururu	Timberwolvesavg 49.3¢	$952.63	$647.08	-$305.54	54% 317-269 (586)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Timberwolvesavg 49.4¢	$939.95	$636.97	-$302.98	52% 246-227 (473)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 44.6¢	$411.55	$431.53	+$19.98	46% 328-382 (710)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 46.6¢	$181.11	$258.62	+$77.5
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 44.6¢	$230.44	$172.91	-$57.52
TA takeormake	Timberwolvesavg 50.7¢	$341.3	$225.34	-$115.96	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
GG GGLPL<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49.9¢	$18.42	$12.37	-$6.04	50% 632-627 (1259)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 52¢	$4.6	$5	+$0.4	51% 4438-4219 (8657)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 73¢	$2.7	$2.22	-$0.48	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$2.45	$1.68	-$0.77	54% 5794-4965 (10759)
TO torta.tech<$100	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$2.4	$1.68	-$0.72	75% 6267-2062 (8329)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$9,201.89

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$66.34

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

Both legs:

Raptors$4,525.9151.6¢+$1.3K

Timberwolves$4,675.9845.6¢$-1.2K

justaluckydudeCTR

Raptors

Invested

$2,011.7

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$224.7

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603

Timberwolves

Invested

$963.57

Value

$702.54

PnL

-$261.03

Record

50%

17-17 (34)

adururu

Timberwolves

Invested

$952.63

Value

$647.08

PnL

-$305.54

Record

54%

317-269 (586)

oxe78sh4w98

Timberwolves

Invested

$939.95

Value

$636.97

PnL

-$302.98

Record

52%

246-227 (473)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$411.55

Value

$431.53

PnL

+$19.98

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

Both legs:

Raptors$181.1146.6¢+$77.5

Timberwolves$230.4444.6¢-$57.52

takeormake

Timberwolves

Invested

$341.3

Value

$225.34

PnL

-$115.96

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

GGLPL<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$18.42

Value

$12.37

PnL

-$6.04

Record

50%

632-627 (1259)

RLWGCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$0.48

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.77

Record

54%

5794-4965 (10759)

torta.tech<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.72

Record

75%

6267-2062 (8329)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.