Spread: Raptors (-5.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (67%) · Timberwolves at 79¢ · $251 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
6
Timberwolves 67%
$251.12
$14.24
67¢ → 78.5¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 79%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Timberwolvesavg 67¢ | $174.61 | $187.64 | +$13.03 | 67% 3569-1722 (5291) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 31¢ | $42.83 | $42.83 | +$0 | 54% 255-214 (469) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 64¢ | $7.04 | $7.92 | +$0.94 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
 RN1<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 69¢ | $6.9 | $7.3 | +$0.4 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 36¢ | $4.48 | $4.34 | -$0.14 | 61% 4723-2962 (7685) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 72¢ | $1.08 | $1.1 | +$0.01 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
Invested
$174.61
Value
$187.64
PnL
+$13.03
Record
67%
3569-1722 (5291)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$42.83
Value
$42.83
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
255-214 (469)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$7.92
PnL
+$0.94
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
RN1<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$0.4
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$4.34
PnL
-$0.14
Record
61%
4723-2962 (7685)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.01
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.