Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (67%) · Timberwolves at 76¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Raptors24¢Timberwolves76¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$28.94

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 76¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors24%

Timberwolves76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,300

Combined PnL-$28.09

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$556.85

Total Shares1,591

Combined PnL-$0.85

Timberwolves — 67%Raptors — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raptors) and the top 1000 (5 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

whaleRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Timberwolvesavg 65.4¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$26.3	67% 3569-1722 (5291)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Raptorsavg 35.1¢	$407.55	$406.7	-$0.85	54% 255-214 (469)
RN1ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 70¢	$262.5	$250	-$12.5	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 70¢	$175	$162.5	-$12.5
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 35¢	$87.5	$87.5	+$0
FO forecastication4CTR	Raptorsavg 35¢	$150.15	$150.15	+$0	48% 946-1016 (1962)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Timberwolvesavg 70¢	$23.1	$21.45	-$1.65	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Timberwolvesavg 62¢	$19.22	$21.08	+$0	61% 4723-2962 (7685)
HRTrading<$100	Timberwolvesavg 67.6¢	$3.72	$3.57	-$0.15	56% 1802-1398 (3200)

SunlineTicker

Timberwolves

Invested

$4,075.9

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$26.3

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Raptors

Invested

$407.55

Value

$406.7

PnL

-$0.85

Record

54%

255-214 (469)

RN1ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$262.5

Value

$250

PnL

-$12.5

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$17570¢-$12.5

Raptors$87.535¢+$0

forecastication4CTR

Raptors

Invested

$150.15

Value

$150.15

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

946-1016 (1962)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$23.1

Value

$21.45

PnL

-$1.65

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

Forecastication2<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$19.22

Value

$21.08

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

4723-2962 (7685)

HRTrading<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$0.15

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raptors) and the top 1000 (5 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

whaleRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.