Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Timberwolves (53%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Raptors (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 48¢ · $14K held
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
5
Raptors 40%
$13.6K
-$55.08
47¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YY YYYYY999CTR | Raptorsavg 47¢ | $7.9K | $7.9K | +$0 | 49% 7155-7315 (14470) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Timberwolvesavg 53¢ | $10.2K | $5.4K | -$53.98 | 55% 12118-9997 (22115) |
 VeryLucky888 | Timberwolvesavg 53¢ | $265 | $265 | -$2.5 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 45.7¢ | $39.28 | $40.42 | +$1.14 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 52¢ | $27.08 | $27.34 | +$0.26 | 54% 540-460 (1000) |
Invested
$7,877.2
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
7155-7315 (14470)
Invested
$10,196.23
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$53.98
Record
55%
12118-9997 (22115)
VeryLucky888Invested
$265
Value
$265
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
Invested
$39.28
Value
$40.42
PnL
+$1.14
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Invested
$27.08
Value
$27.34
PnL
+$0.26
Record
54%
540-460 (1000)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.