Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spurs, while the market favors Kings (54%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Spurs (-18.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (50%) · Spurs at 46¢ · $346 held · ends Oct 28

Spurs46¢Kings54¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 50%

Total Value

$346.06

Combined PnL

$0.1

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 46¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs46%

Kings54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$324.3

Total Shares705

Combined PnL+$0

Kings2 traders

Total Value$21.76

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$0.1

Spurs — 50%Kings — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Spursavg 46¢	$322	$322	+$0	52% 270-247 (517)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Kingsavg 53¢	$11.06	$11.06	+$0	53% 5435-4763 (10198)
0xheavy888<$100	Kingsavg 53¢	$20	$10.7	+$0.1	56% 6781-5428 (12209)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Spursavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.3	+$0	50% 6677-6671 (13348)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Spurs

Invested

$322

Value

$322

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

270-247 (517)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Kings

Invested

$11.06

Value

$11.06

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5435-4763 (10198)

0xheavy888<$100

Kings

Invested

$20

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

6781-5428 (12209)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6677-6671 (13348)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.