Kings vs. Spurs
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (100%) · Spurs at 93¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
7
Spurs 100%
$18.4K
$0.02
91.7¢ → 92.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Spursavg 91¢ | $8.6K | $8.6K | +$47.21 | 50% 2443-2430 (4873) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Spursavg 92.5¢ | $5.3K | $5.2K | -$57.47 | 54% 16692-14013 (30705) |
 VeryLucky888 | Spursavg 92¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$18 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Spursavg 92¢ | $920 | $915 | -$5 | 53% 5465-4807 (10272) |
 HRTrading | Spursavg 91.8¢ | $269.59 | $270.91 | -$2.86 | 54% 2513-2131 (4644) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Spursavg 91.3¢ | $27.4 | $27.45 | +$0.05 | 56% 6824-5466 (12290) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Spursavg 92¢ | $16.56 | $16.65 | +$0.09 | 58% 27838-20469 (48307) |
Invested
$8,592.83
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$47.21
Record
50%
2443-2430 (4873)
Invested
$5,259.01
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$57.47
Record
54%
16692-14013 (30705)
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,312
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$18
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
Invested
$920
Value
$915
PnL
-$5
Record
53%
5465-4807 (10272)
HRTradingInvested
$269.59
Value
$270.91
PnL
-$2.86
Record
54%
2513-2131 (4644)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$27.4
Value
$27.45
PnL
+$0.05
Record
56%
6824-5466 (12290)
Invested
$16.56
Value
$16.65
PnL
+$0.09
Record
58%
27838-20469 (48307)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.