Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$37.01

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 45.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,203

Combined PnL+$81.99

Under4 traders

Total Value$530.98

Total Shares1,018

Combined PnL-$44.98

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 45.1¢	$450.55	$500	+$49.45	53% 5435-4763 (10198)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.7¢	$423.1	$388.65	-$34.45	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$344.99	$374.99	+$30	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Overavg 46¢	$850.8	$166.45	-$3.04	50% 2425-2408 (4833)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 54¢	$107.28	$99.34	-$7.95	59% 2582-1815 (4397)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Overavg 44.8¢	$39.92	$44.52	+$4.6	52% 270-247 (517)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 55¢	$23.38	$23	-$0.38	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 55.5¢	$22.2	$20	-$2.2	50% 7518-7556 (15074)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$10.57	$11.03	+$0.46	56% 6781-5428 (12209)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$3.8	$4.32	+$0.52	57% 12548-9494 (22042)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$450.55

Value

$500

PnL

+$49.45

Record

53%

5435-4763 (10198)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$423.1

Value

$388.65

PnL

-$34.45

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$344.99

Value

$374.99

PnL

+$30

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Over

Invested

$850.8

Value

$166.45

PnL

-$3.04

Record

50%

2425-2408 (4833)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$107.28

Value

$99.34

PnL

-$7.95

Record

59%

2582-1815 (4397)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.92

Value

$44.52

PnL

+$4.6

Record

52%

270-247 (517)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$23.38

Value

$23

PnL

-$0.38

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$22.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$2.2

Record

50%

7518-7556 (15074)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.57

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$0.46

Record

56%

6781-5428 (12209)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.52

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.