Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$10.05

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,289

Combined PnL-$18.47

Under3 traders

Total Value$676.06

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL+$8.42

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53¢	$621.84	$610.11	-$11.73	54% 16692-14013 (30705)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 47¢	$470	$480	+$10	53% 5465-4807 (10272)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Overavg 54¢	$453.6	$441	-$12.6	54% 368-319 (687)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$173.9	$171.67	-$2.23	58% 40340-29132 (69472)
RollAwayTheDewARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$171.77	$170.28	-$1.5	52% 291-264 (555)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$122.28	$122.28	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$49.5	$48	-$1.5
RO royalestake	Overavg 50¢	$252.45	$132.54	+$6.31	46% 366-422 (788)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$23.8	$24.4	+$0.65	56% 6824-5466 (12290)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 52¢	$22.96	$22.52	-$0.45	58% 27838-20469 (48307)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$621.84

Value

$610.11

PnL

-$11.73

Record

54%

16692-14013 (30705)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$470

Value

$480

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5465-4807 (10272)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Over

Invested

$453.6

Value

$441

PnL

-$12.6

Record

54%

368-319 (687)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$173.9

Value

$171.67

PnL

-$2.23

Record

58%

40340-29132 (69472)

RollAwayTheDewARB<$100

Over

Invested

$171.77

Value

$170.28

PnL

-$1.5

Record

52%

291-264 (555)

Both legs:

Invested

$252.45

Value

$132.54

PnL

+$6.31

Record

46%

366-422 (788)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.8

Value

$24.4

PnL

+$0.65

Record

56%

6824-5466 (12290)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$22.96

Value

$22.52

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.