Spread: Lakers (-3.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (50%) · Trail Blazers at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28

Lakers48¢Trail Blazers52¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 50%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$38.07

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers48%

Trail Blazers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,754

Combined PnL+$38.21

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$551.7

Total Shares1,148

Combined PnL-$0.14

Trail Blazers — 50%Lakers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLakers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Trail Blazersavg 52.9¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$34.99	54% 1247-1047 (2294)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Lakersavg 47¢	$470	$470	+$0	53% 5465-4807 (10272)
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 53¢	$380.08	$380.1	+$0.02	54% 16692-14013 (30705)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Trail Blazersavg 51¢	$81.59	$84.79	+$3.2	52% 291-264 (555)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Lakersavg 47¢	$50.15	$50.15	-$0	47% 2366-2633 (4999)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Lakersavg 48.1¢	$31.69	$31.55	-$0.14	58% 27838-20469 (48307)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3,109.32

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$34.99

Record

54%

1247-1047 (2294)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Lakers

Invested

$470

Value

$470

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5465-4807 (10272)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$380.08

Value

$380.1

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

16692-14013 (30705)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$81.59

Value

$84.79

PnL

+$3.2

Record

52%

291-264 (555)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$50.15

Value

$50.15

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2366-2633 (4999)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$31.69

Value

$31.55

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLakers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.