Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (10%) · Lakers at 53¢ · $25K held · ends Oct 28

Lakers53¢Trail Blazers47¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 10%

Total Value

$25.0K

Combined PnL

-$55.02

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers53%

Trail Blazers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers1 trader

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares32,053

Combined PnL-$39.74

Trail Blazers9 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares17,209

Combined PnL-$15.29

Lakers — 10%Trail Blazers — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Lakersavg 52.6¢	$16.9K	$16.8K	-$39.74	54% 565-481 (1046)
FF ff3364CTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$28.44	50% 782-782 (1564)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Trail Blazersavg 47.1¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$18.78	54% 16692-14013 (30705)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.5	62% 3974-2436 (6410)
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439CTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$727.2	$727.2	-$0	48% 336-359 (695)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$479.99	$479.99	-$0	53% 5465-4807 (10272)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$289.26	$295.42	+$6.15	52% 291-264 (555)
VeryLucky888CTR	Trail Blazersavg 47.7¢	$538.24	$237.51	-$1.67	58% 40340-29132 (69472)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$99.64	$101.76	+$2.12	50% 6736-6737 (13473)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 46.9¢	$18.74	$19	+$0.26	58% 27838-20469 (48307)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Lakers

Invested

$16,867.39

Value

$16.8K

PnL

-$39.74

Record

54%

565-481 (1046)

ff3364CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,730.24

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$28.44

Record

50%

782-782 (1564)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,422.67

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$18.78

Record

54%

16692-14013 (30705)

SunlineTickerCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,199.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.5

Record

62%

3974-2436 (6410)

0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$727.2

Value

$727.2

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

336-359 (695)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$479.99

Value

$479.99

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

5465-4807 (10272)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$289.26

Value

$295.42

PnL

+$6.15

Record

52%

291-264 (555)

VeryLucky888CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$538.24

Value

$237.51

PnL

-$1.67

Record

58%

40340-29132 (69472)

Forecastication2CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$99.64

Value

$101.76

PnL

+$2.12

Record

50%

6736-6737 (13473)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$18.74

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.26

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.