Trail Blazers vs. Lakers
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (67%) · Lakers at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
6
Lakers 67%
$3.5K
-$18.73
56.6¢ → 56.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Lakersavg 57¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$0 | 62% 3974-2436 (6410) |
FO forecastication4 | Lakersavg 56¢ | $927.36 | $943.92 | +$16.56 | 49% 1109-1140 (2249) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Trail Blazersavg 42¢ | $769.11 | $787.42 | +$18.31 | 52% 291-264 (555) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Trail Blazersavg 43¢ | $2.7K | $378.21 | -$53.25 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Lakersavg 58¢ | $38.08 | $37.72 | -$0.36 | 58% 27838-20469 (48307) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Lakersavg 57¢ | $30.78 | $30.78 | -$0 | 54% 2513-2131 (4644) |
Invested
$1,298.46
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
62%
3974-2436 (6410)
Invested
$927.36
Value
$943.92
PnL
+$16.56
Record
49%
1109-1140 (2249)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$769.11
Value
$787.42
PnL
+$18.31
Record
52%
291-264 (555)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,674.69
Value
$378.21
PnL
-$53.25
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
Invested
$38.08
Value
$37.72
PnL
-$0.36
Record
58%
27838-20469 (48307)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$30.78
Value
$30.78
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
2513-2131 (4644)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.