Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (97%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 3.5¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 25%
$16.6K
$2.5K
45.5¢ → 3.5¢
-92% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 45.1¢ | $8.3K | $9.7K | +$1.4K | 48% 413-442 (855) |
TA takeormake | Overavg 55.9¢ | $2.6K | $3.6K | +$1.0K | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
AN Anon455 | Overavg 60.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$85.11 | 56% 2435-1897 (4332) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 49.2¢ | $974.86 | $1.0K | +$74.59 | 54% 16556-13890 (30446) |
JU justaluckydude | Overavg 48.1¢ | $344.54 | $336.39 | -$8.15 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
 RN1 | Overavg 39¢ | $97.5 | $117.5 | +$8.75 | 54% 54908-46856 (101764) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 61.7¢ | $21.98 | $16.73 | -$5.25 | 57% 12546-9489 (22035) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 63.8¢ | $17.25 | $16.03 | -$1.22 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
Invested
$8,272.87
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
Invested
$2,596.69
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$1,781.54
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$85.11
Record
56%
2435-1897 (4332)
Invested
$974.86
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$74.59
Record
54%
16556-13890 (30446)
Invested
$344.54
Value
$336.39
PnL
-$8.15
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
RN1Invested
$97.5
Value
$117.5
PnL
+$8.75
Record
54%
54908-46856 (101764)
Invested
$21.98
Value
$16.73
PnL
-$5.25
Record
57%
12546-9489 (22035)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.25
Value
$16.03
PnL
-$1.22
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.