Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 68¢ · $59K held · ends Oct 27

Over32¢Under68¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$59.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 68¢

+30% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$33.2K

Total Shares62,702

Combined PnL+$311.93

Over4 traders

Total Value$24.8K

Total Shares54,230

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Underavg 53¢	$26.5K	$26.5K	-$0	50% 153-152 (305)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$24.1K	$22.7K	$-1.4K	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 50¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$254.76	50% 1084-1075 (2159)
TO tomb2456CTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	50% 262-266 (528)
HA Harmful-inclusion	Underavg 50¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	+$31.37	57% 135-102 (237)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$963.71	$1.0K	+$63.42	62% 3928-2392 (6320)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$608.86	$672.28	+$63.42
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$354.85	$354.85	-$0
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 53¢	$530	$530	+$0	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 49¢	$340.82	$368.64	+$27.82	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 53¢	$147.44	$147.44	-$1.39	53% 5383-4728 (10111)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$99.64	$93.78	-$5.85	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$72.02	$71.39	-$0.63	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$1.64	$1.71	+$0.05	56% 6752-5410 (12162)

justwins

Under

Invested

$26,499.96

Value

$26.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

153-152 (305)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$24,105.9

Value

$22.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$4,246

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$254.76

Record

50%

1084-1075 (2159)

tomb2456CTR

Over

Invested

$1,997.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

262-266 (528)

Harmful-inclusion

Under

Invested

$2,067.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$31.37

Record

57%

135-102 (237)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Under

Invested

$963.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$63.42

Record

62%

3928-2392 (6320)

Both legs:

Under$608.8648¢+$63.42

Over$354.8547¢-$0

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$530

Value

$530

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$340.82

Value

$368.64

PnL

+$27.82

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$147.44

Value

$147.44

PnL

-$1.39

Record

53%

5383-4728 (10111)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$99.64

Value

$93.78

PnL

-$5.85

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$72.02

Value

$71.39

PnL

-$0.63

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.