Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.7K
-$7.29
50.9¢ → 49.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $537.65 | $542.93 | +$5.28 | 54% 15300-12775 (28075) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $530 | $500 | -$30 | 53% 5196-4520 (9716) |
KK kkpay19888 | Overavg 51¢ | $447.27 | $447.27 | +$0 | 53% 501-436 (937) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 47¢ | $209.83 | $227.69 | +$17.86 | 63% 5793-3427 (9220) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $19.47 | $19.05 | -$0.42 | 57% 24239-18661 (42900) |
Invested
$537.65
Value
$542.93
PnL
+$5.28
Record
54%
15300-12775 (28075)
Invested
$530
Value
$500
PnL
-$30
Record
53%
5196-4520 (9716)
Invested
$447.27
Value
$447.27
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
501-436 (937)
Invested
$209.83
Value
$227.69
PnL
+$17.86
Record
63%
5793-3427 (9220)
Invested
$19.47
Value
$19.05
PnL
-$0.42
Record
57%
24239-18661 (42900)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.