Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 46¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 27

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$40.74

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 45.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,796

Combined PnL+$50.27

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,846

Combined PnL-$9.54

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 55.7¢	$6.0K	$5.8K	-$170.91	54% 15300-12775 (28075)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.7¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$145.29
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$25.62
MA MAGATheeStallion	Overavg 52.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$50.27	58% 232-165 (397)
KK kkpay19888CTR	Underavg 45.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$2.48	53% 501-436 (937)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 48¢	$480	$460	-$20	53% 5196-4520 (9716)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$194.69	$201.25	+$6.56	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$71.34	$69.92	-$1.41	57% 24239-18661 (42900)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$41.37	$40.49	-$0.87
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.5¢	$29.97	$29.43	-$0.54
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$20.57	$21.51	+$1.17	55% 2151-1765 (3916)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 45.7¢	$13.7	$13.8	+$0.25	56% 6682-5351 (12033)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,952.6

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$170.91

Record

54%

15300-12775 (28075)

Both legs:

Over$4,745.2755.7¢-$145.29

Under$1,207.3347¢-$25.62

MAGATheeStallion

Over

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$50.27

Record

58%

232-165 (397)

kkpay19888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,530.33

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$2.48

Record

53%

501-436 (937)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$480

Value

$460

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

5196-4520 (9716)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$194.69

Value

$201.25

PnL

+$6.56

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$71.34

Value

$69.92

PnL

-$1.41

Record

57%

24239-18661 (42900)

Both legs:

Under$41.3746.5¢-$0.87

Over$29.9755.5¢-$0.54

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.57

Value

$21.51

PnL

+$1.17

Record

55%

2151-1765 (3916)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.7

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

6682-5351 (12033)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.