Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 84¢ · $11K held
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 100%
$10.5K
$1.7K
51.7¢ → 83.5¢
+61% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 84%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 51¢ | $6.9K | $8.3K | +$1.4K | 48% 413-442 (855) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51.2¢ | $616.14 | $733.52 | +$117.38 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
TA takeormake | Overavg 59.8¢ | $513.81 | $592.71 | +$78.9 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
SU SunlineTicker | Overavg 59¢ | $418.35 | $432.53 | +$14.18 | 62% 3928-2392 (6320) |
JU justaluckydude | Overavg 46.3¢ | $150.63 | $232.52 | +$81.89 | 53% 9987-8708 (18695) |
AN Anon455 | Overavg 50¢ | $189 | $230.58 | +$41.58 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $15 | $15.25 | +$0.25 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $11.39 | $11.73 | +$0.34 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$6,926.39
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
Invested
$616.14
Value
$733.52
PnL
+$117.38
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$513.81
Value
$592.71
PnL
+$78.9
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
Invested
$418.35
Value
$432.53
PnL
+$14.18
Record
62%
3928-2392 (6320)
Invested
$150.63
Value
$232.52
PnL
+$81.89
Record
53%
9987-8708 (18695)
Invested
$189
Value
$230.58
PnL
+$41.58
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
Invested
$15
Value
$15.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
6607-6589 (13196)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.39
Value
$11.73
PnL
+$0.34
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.