Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 50¢ · $359 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$358.6
-$356.92
43.4¢ → 50¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 hammyandcheese | Underavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $190 | -$290 | 58% 341-251 (592) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 35.8¢ | $208.3 | $145.54 | -$62.76 | 56% 2435-1897 (4332) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 71.1¢ | $17.78 | $18.75 | +$0.97 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $6.78 | $3.19 | -$3.59 | 57% 27287-20178 (47465) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $6.06 | $1.12 | -$1.55 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
hammyandcheeseInvested
$1,000
Value
$190
PnL
-$290
Record
58%
341-251 (592)
Invested
$208.3
Value
$145.54
PnL
-$62.76
Record
56%
2435-1897 (4332)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.78
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$0.97
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
Invested
$6.78
Value
$3.19
PnL
-$3.59
Record
57%
27287-20178 (47465)
Invested
$6.06
Value
$1.12
PnL
-$1.55
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.