Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Over91¢Under9¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$40.96

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 91¢

+71% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over91%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,281

Combined PnL+$137.75

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,333

Combined PnL-$178.7

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$91.24	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$197.69	53% 597-533 (1130)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 55.5¢	$123.16	$170.94	+$47.78	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 34¢	$99.3	$118.28	+$18.98	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 66¢	$7.48	$6.75	-$0.74	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 68¢	$4.29	$3.76	-$0.54	57% 27008-20057 (47065)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,614.93

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$91.24

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$1,429.44

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$197.69

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$123.16

Value

$170.94

PnL

+$47.78

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$99.3

Value

$118.28

PnL

+$18.98

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$7.48

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$0.74

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$4.29

Value

$3.76

PnL

-$0.54

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.