Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Thunder, while the market favors Suns (51%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (43%) · $6K held · ends Oct 27

Suns51¢Suns49¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 43%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$19.67

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Suns51%

Suns50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,815

Combined PnL+$31.25

Suns4 traders

Total Value$928.79

Total Shares1,852

Combined PnL-$11.58

Thunder — 43%Suns — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Suns) and the top 1000 (5 on Thunder) disagree here.

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpThunder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrThunder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Thunderavg 50¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$38.51	54% 555-474 (1029)
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513	Thunderavg 51¢	$993.24	$983.5	-$9.74	54% 251-214 (465)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Sunsavg 51¢	$612	$594	-$18	53% 348-311 (659)
VeryLucky888CTR	Sunsavg 48.1¢	$178.57	$178.16	+$5.16	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
AS astapzippoCTR	Sunsavg 50¢	$100	$101	+$1	56% 2045-1587 (3632)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Thunderavg 49¢	$81.14	$83.62	+$2.48	52% 267-243 (510)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Sunsavg 49¢	$52.95	$55.64	+$0.26	57% 24239-18661 (42900)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Thunder

Invested

$3,850.71

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$38.51

Record

54%

555-474 (1029)

0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513

Thunder

Invested

$993.24

Value

$983.5

PnL

-$9.74

Record

54%

251-214 (465)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Suns

Invested

$612

Value

$594

PnL

-$18

Record

53%

348-311 (659)

VeryLucky888CTR

Suns

Invested

$178.57

Value

$178.16

PnL

+$5.16

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

astapzippoCTR

Suns

Invested

$100

Value

$101

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

2045-1587 (3632)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Thunder

Invested

$81.14

Value

$83.62

PnL

+$2.48

Record

52%

267-243 (510)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$52.95

Value

$55.64

PnL

+$0.26

Record

57%

24239-18661 (42900)

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Suns) and the top 1000 (5 on Thunder) disagree here.

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpThunder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrThunder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.