Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (75%) · Thunder at 54¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
8
Thunder 75%
$9.9K
-$814.37
58.5¢ → 53.5¢
-9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Thunderavg 58.6¢ | $9.1K | $8.3K | -$792 | 54% 15672-13125 (28797) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Thunderavg 58¢ | $580 | $570 | -$10 | 53% 5300-4639 (9939) |
 VeryLucky888 | Thunderavg 58.5¢ | $585 | $495.9 | -$13.7 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
 RN1 | Thunderavg 57.5¢ | $287.5 | $285 | -$2.5 | 54% 52380-44285 (96665) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Sunsavg 44.5¢ | $145.7 | $150.48 | +$4.79 | 62% 3908-2372 (6280) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Thunderavg 59¢ | $22.35 | $22.22 | -$1.16 | 56% 24841-19200 (44041) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Thunderavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.85 | -$0.05 | 50% 7428-7474 (14902) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.3 | +$0.25 | 56% 10738-8467 (19205) |
Invested
$9,123.1
Value
$8.3K
PnL
-$792
Record
54%
15672-13125 (28797)
Invested
$580
Value
$570
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
5300-4639 (9939)
VeryLucky888Invested
$585
Value
$495.9
PnL
-$13.7
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
RN1Invested
$287.5
Value
$285
PnL
-$2.5
Record
54%
52380-44285 (96665)
Invested
$145.7
Value
$150.48
PnL
+$4.79
Record
62%
3908-2372 (6280)
Invested
$22.35
Value
$22.22
PnL
-$1.16
Record
56%
24841-19200 (44041)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
7428-7474 (14902)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.25
Record
56%
10738-8467 (19205)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.